The Blue Jays' offence needs a spark. Here are the options to create one

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TORONTO — This week, after yet another loss in which the Toronto Blue Jays only mustered one run, manager John Schneider vowed that his club's offence will "get better."

In truth, the Blue Jays' offence can't get much worse.

The Blue Jays are averaging 3.47 runs per game. Only the Oakland Athletics (3.06) and Chicago White Sox (2.87) have managed fewer. The Blue Jays have scored six runs or more in a game only four times this season and have a minus-31 run differential. With that sort of lopsided figure, the Blue Jays are lucky to be 15-17 thanks to some strong pitching performances; their expected record is 12-20.

Overall, the Blue Jays' OPS of .670 ranks 21st in the majors, while their .556 OPS with runners in scoring position ranks last. Many regulars in the Blue Jays lineup, including George Springer, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., are performing below their career averages, contributing to the slow start.

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Toronto's offence has been a focal point this season after the club spent most of last season struggling to score runs consistently. Despite an offseason spent evaluating what went wrong in 2023 and reconfiguring their internal processes, familiar offensive trends have emerged this season.

With that in mind, let's look at some paths the Blue Jays can take to address their offensive struggles.

Stand pat and hope things improve

The first option is to largely do nothing. Schneider continues to fill out the lineup card as he has been for the first 32 games and puts faith in the players to turn it around. This method presumes players such as Springer (.617 OPS, 83 wRC+) and Bichette (.557 OPS, 62 wRC+) will not continue to hit at a below-average clip, but instead will soon start hitting like the above-average players they have been their entire careers.

Sticking with the status quo could work if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette get back to hitting at their career norms. (Kevin Sousa / USA Today)

Schneider has remained steadfast in his belief that the offence will pick up — that his team is one big hit or one big inning away from an outburst simply because the roster is full of guys with proven track records.

However, that refrain may sound like something fans would have heard the manager say last season when the team finished 14th in runs.

"It's May 1, it will come. We will be better. That's what I can say to (fans)," Schneider said. "And I would hope that our fans trust the fact that we have really good players, that they understand they're not performing up to their expectations. And that I hope they know that we will be better."

Because there is luck and randomness mixed in, things like hitting with runners in scoring position can turn quickly, so there is some value in remaining patient. Last season, the Blue Jays performed poorly in RISP situations, with a below-average .662 OPS and 83 wRC+ through May and June, but they were one of the best teams with RISP in August and September, posting a 132 wRC+ and .832 OPS.

There is also promise in some of the Blue Jays' underlying numbers — they are fourth in the American League in pitches per plate appearance (3.99) and second in walks (112), and have the fourth-fewest strikeouts (238).

Though the offence has been below average (96 wRC+), but not disastrous, waiting for the group to simply start hitting is like standing behind a construction worker at Tim Hortons: It feels like it's taking forever. And in a division as competitive as the AL East, falling too far behind early in the season can be detrimental to playoff odds. So can Schneider do anything to spur the offence?

Mix up the batting order

Is it time to move Springer, currently slashing .212/.295/.322, out of the leadoff spot? No one disputes Springer's pedigree as a leadoff hitter. Only one player in MLB history has more leadoff home runs than Springer's 57. (Rickey Henderson has the record at 81.) But until his performance normalizes, the Blue Jays could consider moving someone else to the top of the order.

Maybe it's time for George Springer to catch his breath lower down in the batting order. (Dan Hamilton / USA Today)

Justin Turner has been the Blue Jays' most consistent hitter and leads the team with a .376 on-base percentage. Turner has only 10 career starts where he hit first, so it's not exactly familiar territory, though someone as experienced as Turner could surely handle the change. But using Turner, who also leads the team with 15 RBIs, at the top moves him away from the cleanup spot where he can drive in runs (assuming men are on base for him).

Schneider was recently asked whether he has given thought to moving Turner up in the lineup to get him a guaranteed at-bat in the first inning.

"We'll see," he said. "Guys are going to hit, George, Vlad and Bo are going to hit, whether it's tomorrow, or the next day or the next day. So ideally, he's up with those guys on base."

If not Turner, the Blue Jays could move Bichette to the leadoff spot, something they've done in the past when Springer had an off day. Bichette isn't hitting at his usual pace either, but maybe the move would mix things up enough to elicit change. However, when asked about the balance between trying to manufacture a spark versus staying the course, the Blue Jays manager sounded like someone favouring the latter.

"There's always things you can do, for sure," Schneider said. "Like I've said a million times, guys are going to get pitched how they're going to get pitched, no matter where they're hitting. If I feel like there comes a time where you need to shake things up, yeah, we'll do it for a game, but right now, again, it's not we hope to get better or we are banking on it. I know we will. Until you reach a point where you're really banging your head against the wall, you trust that the guys are going to do what they normally do."

Find a spark in Triple A

Last August, the Blue Jays called up a relatively unknown prospect, Davis Schneider, from Triple-A Buffalo and he went on to post the best OPS (1.315) in his first 25 games in modern MLB history and served as an offensive spark for a team that needed one.

(And speaking of Schneider, is it time for him to play every day regardless of matchups? The 25-year-old has been one of the team's most reliable batters, with a .338 OBP, and his splits against right-handers are better than they are against lefties.)

Can the Blue Jays turn to the minor leagues again to inject offence?

Thus far, Addison Barger hasn't been able to carry over his success from the minors into the majors, going 1-for-18 in his five games.

First baseman Spencer Horwitz is slashing .348/.487/.489 with 11 extra-base hits for the Buffalo Bisons. Horwitz isn't likely to add much power to the lineup, but he's managed a .341 OBP in 15 previous MLB games and perhaps he can offer a more well-rounded game than Daniel Vogelbach, who has a .524 OPS in 27 plate appearances.

No doubt from Orelvis!

389ft | 112.6 pic.twitter.com/zBDhozFrAg

— Buffalo Bisons (@BuffaloBisons) May 1, 2024

Of course, it's impossible not to notice what Orelvis Martinez has done with his bat lately. Toronto's No. 2 prospect has eight home runs in his past 14 games with Buffalo, during which he has hit .295/.358/.721. Martinez looks as though he's tapping into that mouthwatering power of his, but while his bat may seem ready to be tested at the major-league level, he has struggled defensively with seven errors in 21 games at second base. The Blue Jays may not be keen to rush his bat to the majors at the expense of his defensive development.

And, of course, where in the world is Joey Votto? He has been sidelined since March 17 when he rolled his ankle after hitting a home run in his first spring training at-bat with the Blue Jays. Votto has been recovering slowly at the team's player development complex in Dunedin, Fla., and while he's taking part in baseball activities, he has yet to play in a rehab game and his timeline remains unclear. But even if we knew when Votto could return, expecting a 40-year-old on a minor-league deal — even a potential Hall of Famer — to ignite a stalling offence on his own isn't reasonable, no matter how magical the storyline would be.

Realistically, if the Blue Jays are going to score more runs, Votto or a prospect isn't going to be the only answer. Offensive improvement has to come from the guys in their lineup who are expected to perform.

"We know we need to be better, we will be better in all aspects," John Schneider said. "When it does click, I think you're going to see the complete brand of baseball."

(Top photo of Guerrero from Wednesday's loss to the Royals: Chris Young / The Canadian Press via Associated Press)