Who stays? Who goes? Jets roster tiers and offseason decisions

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WINNIPEG — Rick Bowness' future as Winnipeg Jets head coach is up in the air. The Jets have a club option for the third year of the contract Bowness signed in 2022, with meetings planned between ownership, management and Bowness in the coming days.

Bowness spoke to his future on Thursday.

"Since my last season in Tampa, every year I sit down and I talk to (his wife) Judy, talk to the kids," he said. "I will talk to (Mark Chipman) and (Kevin Cheveldayoff) and I know what I'm going to do. I know what I want to do. That will come out. We will let you know."

For the moment, it's difficult to know if Bowness intends to retire — on his terms, or at least in collaboration with the team — or to make his case to come back for one last dance as head coach. My guess is the former, with a formal search and Scott Arniel first in line. Speculation will continue until we know for sure.

Cheveldayoff declined to put a timeline on the critical decision.

"It's an emotional time for everybody here. We'll have those conversations and we'll update from there," he said.

One other possibility is that the Jets are waiting to see which head coaches emerge as free agents as other teams falter in the first round.

Bowness is far from the only member of the Jets whose future is up in the air. Winnipeg has six unrestricted free agents, including goaltender Laurent Brosssoit and all three trade deadline acquisitions — Sean Monahan, Tyler Toffoli and Colin Miller — along with core defencemen Dylan DeMelo and Brenden Dillon. Meanwhile, an NHL source tells The Athletic that Nikolaj Ehlers is going to be shopped.

"There are going to be changes," Cheveldayoff said. "Changes are inevitable every offseason, whether you want them to happen or you don't want to happen."

So who stays? Who goes? And whose status as a member of the Jets is still in question?

The 'untouchable' core

Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck are core pieces whose seven-year, $8.5 million AAV contract extensions kick in next season. They are pillars around which the Jets will seek to build.

Kyle Connor has two seasons left on his $7.1 million AAV contract. He's entrenched on the top line, the top power-play unit and Winnipeg's outdoorsman/ice-fishing contingent. It was inspiring to see Connor dial up the intensity of his two-way game throughout the first-round loss, too; one wonders what the 34-goal scorer who didn't outscore his opposition during the season is capable of if that's his new normal.

Josh Morrissey's emergence as an elite all-around defenceman was one thing. Now, the conviction with which he's pushing for individual and organizational improvement has become a story of the offseason. If Winnipeg's core ever gets back over the first-round hump, one expects we'll reflect on Morrissey's commentary.

Adam Lowry was playing with a hand injury, despite telling reporters he was "fine" after Game 5. The guy is a warrior and, when assessing players who might deliver on future Jets playoff teams, one believes in Lowry's ability to win his minutes.

Gabriel Vilardi was hurt a couple of times this season and unable to turn the tide for Winnipeg in the playoffs. His status is assured, while his contributions to the power play — before and after Monahan's arrival — made it a treat to watch. Everyone involved is hoping for a healthy season and another step forward from the 24-year-old scorer.

Very, very likely to stay

Nino Niederreiter adores Winnipeg and was eager to stay. Vladislav Namestnikov signed a two-year deal on Day 1 of free agency last summer. They're both great fits who make their lines harder to play against and they'll both be back. Mason Appleton is a staple alongside Lowry on the Jets' third line. Mark it down now if Bowness returns and consider it likely even if he doesn't.

I'm not sure what Namestnikov or Appleton's 2025 UFA status will bring but suspect it's too soon for those conversations to have begun.

Alex Iafallo is also a 2025 UFA and has been effective in spurts. His $4 million cap hit is inefficient but not such an albatross that Winnipeg needs to do anything about it now. Morgan Barron's lower-body injury kept him out of the playoffs; he was particularly frustrated when he tried to skate and found that he was far away from ready. He'll be back next season, too.

Dylan Samberg was one of many defencemen who struggled to move the puck against Colorado but his season-long story is that of an emerging top-four defenceman. His $1.4 million contract offers cap efficiency that helps elsewhere and he's a restricted free agent in 2025. He'll be back, either offering third-pairing excellence or continuing to grow into a second-pair role.

Neal Pionk struggled this season, makes $5.9 million and is scheduled to become a free agent in 2025. In most cases, this would put a target on him but he's a big part of the team's culture and played big minutes even on his most difficult days. I believe the plan is to play the situation out and re-evaluate at a different price point if they can.

Young lions playing for pride

Cole Perfetti is headed for a bridge deal, likely resolved late in the summer once the UFAs are taken care of. A team-friendly deal could match the $3.4 million that Vilardi got coming off a 41-point season last summer.

It should also be noted that he missed a $212,000 performance bonus by a single goal. Other teams noticed the healthy scratches; I wouldn't be surprised if Cheveldayoff receives a bit of tire kicking on a player that he likely values more than Bowness does.

I've also wondered about offer sheets; an offer sheet between $2,145,062 and $4,290,125 would cost a rival team a second-round pick. It would also be an automatic match by Winnipeg. An offer sheet between $4,290,126 and $6,435,186 would require a first- and third-round pick. To be clear, both paths strike me as unlikely but are included for conversation's sake.

Either way, Winnipeg would do well to show Perfetti he's meant to be a big part of the team's future. He has the ninth most points from his draft class and has played fewer games than everyone in front of him — and fewer minutes in those games, too. The Jets need a pipeline they can believe in — and one that rewards them when the time comes by committing to the long haul.

Logan Stanley and David Gustafsson are restricted free agents with arbitration rights. Winnipeg's depth meant that neither played the full 82-game complement, although they each played more playoff games than Perfetti did. One imagines both players are back on modest contracts, fighting for playing time once again.

Rasmus Kupari dressed in 28 games and skated for miles but registered a single assist.

UFA priorities

DeMelo's return seems like something approaching a lock. He's entrenched in the community, has set down roots — he and his wife Jessica are expecting their second child this August — and was a lot of key Jets players' votes for "most underrated" during our player polls this season.

The DeMelo/Jets appreciation is mutual.

"I really enjoy the city and being here and the fans," DeMelo said. "It feels like home for sure. I hope it works out. Obviously nothing is guaranteed, but I can definitely see myself staying here."

The only questions I have about the 31-year-old DeMelo are dollars and term; $3.5 million for three years comes to mind, but those negotiations haven't begun yet.

Dillon expressed a sense of worry that he hadn't been signed earlier in the year, adding that commiserating with DeMelo helped him get through the uncertainty. Cheveldayoff conveyed that he'd spoken to both players' agents, saying that extension talks were more about "when" than "if" they would happen. His hope is that both players return.

Dillon sounded as though he wished he were already signed.

"Am I frustrated that I'm not signed as I sit here? Absolutely. I feel like I'm a big part of this team. I feel like coming in, I've said it numerous times, I love the group of guys we have. The D group we have, we have a lot of fun together, we want to get better together," he said. "I want to win. I want to be a big part of this team, and obviously you want to feel wanted and like you're a big part of that. Basically, until July 1 I'm a Winnipeg Jet. Hopefully we can make it work."

Recall that Dillon switched agents this season, choosing Allain Roy of RSG Hockey Inc. Roy told The Athletic this season that Dillon is open to re-signing in Winnipeg but was clear that he will be prepared to approach free agency if he doesn't find a long-term fit. Health-wise, Dillon will be at 100 percent well before training camp after suffering a skate blade cut on his hand and would have been ready to go for Game 7 if the Jets had made it that far.

Monahan is a signing target for the Jets and expressed some amount of interest in the same.

"I think the biggest thing for me is I want to give myself a chance to win," he said. "This is a spot that definitely wants to win and has the makings of doing that."

Cheveldayoff characterized Monahan's communication as positive, saying that there's a desire to make things work.

Monahan is an interesting case; his single assist in five games means fan perception of him might be at a low. He did manage a trick that not every Jets forward pulled off — good, low puck support for defencemen and the patience to create zone exits against Colorado. He didn't bury any of his chances, getting particularly robbed by Alexandar Georgiev on a Game 5 power play that will haunt him for some time.

I think the Jets believe they need a veteran, faceoff-winning centre like Monahan on this roster and value his chemistry with Vilardi on the power play.

Sail on, so long, farewell

Toffoli was polite and respectful while being clear that free agency is something he looks at as an opportunity to explore. It's unlikely the Jets have the cap space, it's unlikely Toffoli is interested in a return, and I think everyone involved is OK with that. Toffoli's two goals in five playoff games were big until they weren't.

If you're Miller, I'm not sure what's happened to convince you the Jets believe in you. The coaching staff limited Miller to five regular season games and one more in the playoffs. His name got overlooked in the UFA discussion during Cheveldayoff's availability and Cheveldayoff didn't bring him up on his own.

Collin Delia played 32 AHL games and didn't excel; Thomas Milic put up substantially better numbers in 33 games. The Jets need someone to play goal behind Hellebuyck but that person will need to be capable of more than Delia showed this season. Meanwhile, Oskari Salminen is a restricted free agent and Domenic DiVincentiis will seek to match Milic's quality in his pro debut.

For sale, but at what price?

I fully expect Ehlers to be shopped — and likely moved — between now and the draft.

Winnipeg has gotten a ton of value out of Ehlers' six seasons at $6 million from 2018-19 to now. He's third in goals and fourth in points over the duration of his contract, leading all forwards in plus-minus in that six-year span. His underlying numbers are spectacular, suggesting Winnipeg has gotten a ton of benefit from the good things he does at five-on-five, even when accounting for the chaos, but his playoff production has not matched his regular season efficacy. I wonder if the organization is burned by that.

Winnipeg has floated Ehlers' name in trade talks before. Now, with one year left on his deal and at least some concern about the team's ability to retain him, I think Ehlers is Winnipeg's best trade chip for repairing its defence and/or picking up a first-round pick in the draft.

"I have one year left," Ehlers said on Thursday. "There has been no talk with Chevy so far and I still definitely have to talk to him with my agent as well, so it's not an answer I can give you right now. I love these guys. They know that. (But) I don't have an answer for anyone right now."

Unknown, for different reasons

Brossoit returned to Winnipeg looking to prove he could perform like a starting goaltender. Good health led to great form, with a .927 save percentage gathered over 23 games — two shy of the number officially required for his name to appear on the Jennings Trophy. Hellebuyck played in 60 games despite Brossoit's excellence as a No. 2 and now Brossoit's future is his to choose.

Nate Schmidt thinks the game quickly despite his loss of footspeed and didn't wilt as much as other defencemen during the playoffs. His regular season body of work was quality for a veteran third pair and he's under contract for one more season. File him under "It depends on what happens elsewhere on the roster."

I think Winnipeg can afford to pay Schmidt's $5.95 million contract if he keeps delivering third-pairing results, as inefficient as that number may be, and he's a well-loved teammate.

Lambert, Chibrikov and Salomonsson: Is there room?

Elias Salomonsson played an enormous role on Skellefteå AIK's championship-winning SHL team. Brad Lambert, 20, and Nikita Chibrikov, 21, had exactly the sort of AHL season that would constitute success for players their age.

The Jets' coaching decision, along with any signings and trades, will combine with each player's performance in camp to dictate the future of Winnipeg's prospects. Ville Heinola will lose his waivers exemption, meaning he needs to win a job outright — again — or risk departing the same way that Johnathan Kovacevic and Declan Chisholm did before him.

A note on the salary cap

Blake Wheeler's buyout will count $2.75 million against the cap in 2024-25 before coming off the books. Scheifele and Hellebuyck's raises will kick in, adding almost $5 million to the Jets' cap. Perfetti's raise could add over $2 million, too.

The Jets project to have approximately $14 million with which to incorporate contracts to Perfetti, Stanley, a backup goaltender and two more defencemen including any of their UFAs. Barring trades or other unforeseen transactions, I'm imagining that at least two of Monahan, DeMelo and Dillon are possible to retain without further roster surgery.

Winnipeg Sports Talk recently asked about buyout costs for Schmidt and Pionk. A Schmidt buyout would save the Jets $3.2 million in 2024-25 and cost $1.6 million in 2025-26. A Pionk buyout would save the Jets $4.0 million in 2024-25 and cost $2 million in 2025-26. Speaking in a strictly general sense, Cheveldayoff didn't take the concept of buyouts off the table on Thursday.

Winnipeg's 2024-25 roster, as it stands today