Where Canada's greenhouse gas emissions come from: 2024 National Greenhouse Gas Inventory
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Backgrounder
Environment and Climate Change Canada published Canada's 2024 National Inventory Report on May 2, 2024. This report details pollution from seven greenhouse gases (GHGs) produced by the Canadian economy from January 1, 1990, to December 31, 2022. Canada has published an annual national inventory since 1996
Since 2016, with Canada's first national climate plan and the ratification of the international Paris Agreement, urgent collective actions to address climate change and limit global warming have been gaining momentum. Reducing emissions is key to Canada's plan for a healthy environment and economy and building a sustainable future. To continue reducing emissions, scientists and policymakers need to understand where greenhouse gas pollution comes from.
The National Inventory Report—a yearly report required by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement—tracks emissions from all sectors of the Canadian economy. Over the years, these reports have allowed governments, civil society, and the public to assess Canada's emissions profile and develop policies, technologies, and methods to further reduce our emissions.
Environment and Climate Change Canada published Canada's 2024 National Inventory Report on May 2, 2024. This report details emissions from seven greenhouse gases (GHGs) produced by the Canadian economy from January 1, 1990, to December 31, 2022. Canada has published an annual national inventory since 1996.
Figure 1: Canada's greenhouse gas emissions by economic sector (2022).
Long descriptionSector
Mt CO2 eq
Percent of total emissions
Electricity
47
6.7%
Oil and gas
217
31%
Transport
156
22%
Buildings
89
13%
Heavy industry
78
11%
Agriculture
70
10%
Waste and others
51
7.1%
Total
708
-
Figure 2: Canadian GHG Emission Trend (excluding Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry) (1990-2022)
Long descriptionFigure 2 is a line graph displaying actual GHG emissions for 1990 to 2022 (Mt CO2 eq). The figure shows that GHG emissions were increasing slowly over time until 2008, decreased in 2009, then stabilized until 2019, and dropped below 2009 level in 2020. Since 2020, emissions have been increasing slightly again. The following table displays GHG emissions from 1990 to 2022.
Year
GHG Emissions (Mt CO2 eq)
1990
608
1991
603
1992
622
1993
627
1994
649
1995
668
1996
689
1997
706
1998
712
1999
723
2000
748
2001
739
2002
745
2003
763
2004
767
2005
761
2006
757
2007
777
2008
760
2009
716
2010
729
2011
738
2012
744
2013
751
2014
750
2015
746
2016
731
2017
742
2018
753
2019
752
2020
686
2021
698
2022
708
Although total emissions are up slightly in 2022, this year's report also shows Canada has continued to keep emissions below 2019 levels, the last year of economic activity before pandemic-related slowdowns. This is noteworthy, with strong economic and population growth in 2021 and 2022.
Progress on climate change is happening, and Canada has been focused and relentless in taking climate action. A series of three climate plans, including the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, have corrected the upward trajectory of Canada's emissions. Canada is on a pathway toward achieving the target of 40-45 percent emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2030.
In December 2023, with the release of the Progress Report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, the Government of Canada confirmed that Canada's emissions are dropping significantly. On May 2, 2024, Canada published greenhouse gas (GHG) data for 2022 in the 2024 National Inventory Report. Projections modeled on the 2024 National Inventory Report data will be available in December 2024.
Figure 3: Emissions projections and progress toward the 2030 target.
Long descriptionThis graphic is a line graph, displaying Canada's historical emissions and projected emissions trajectory, beginning in 2005 and ending in 2035. The three data lines are: 2015 projections from the Second Biennial Report; 2023 Projections; and 2023 Projections with Nature-Based Climate Solutions (NBCS) and Agriculture Measures. Additionally, the graph indicates Canada's 2026 interim objective (20 percent below 2005 levels), as well as the former (30 percent below 2005 levels) and current (40-45 percent below 2005 levels) 2030 emissions targets.
Canada's projected emissions trajectoryYear
2015 Projections (Second Biennial Report) (Mt CO2 eq)
2023 Projections
(Mt CO2 eq)
2023 Projections with NBCS and Agriculture Measures (Mt CO2 eq)
2005
749
732
-
2006
740
722
-
2007
761
751
-
2008
741
733
-
2009
699
675
-
2010
707
712
-
2011
709
727
-
2012
715
719
-
2013
726
718
-
2014
727
692
-
2015
736
725
-
2016
748
695
-
2017
755
693
-
2018
761
707
-
2019
764
697
-
2020
768
629
-
2021
770
637
-
2022
774
679
-
2023
783
626
-
2024
789
610
-
2025
793
597
-
2026
798
573
-
2027
801
551
-
2028
807
526
-
2029
812
505
-
2030
815
480
467
2031
-
470
457
2032
-
461
448
2033
-
455
442
2034
-
448
435
2035
-
436
423
Emissions highlights
The emissions data for 2022 confirms Canada's economic growth continues to decouple from its greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions and emissions intensity have diverged consistently since 1990. While Canada's economy continues to grow, Canada's emissions continue to fall. The emissions intensity (greenhouse gases per every dollar of gross domestic product) for the entire Canadian economy has declined by 42 percent since 1990.
This data also provides evidence that many parts of the economy are continuing to become more efficient and greener. The adoption of clean technologies, switching to cleaner fuels and non-emitting electricity (hydro, wind, solar, nuclear), and structural changes in the economy are moving Canada toward net-zero emissions by 2050.
Emissions intensity: The ratio of greenhouse gas emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). Greenhouse gas emissions intensity indicates how closely linked emissions are to economic growth. The decoupling of emissions from economic growth is an essential step to reducing emissions while maintaining economic prosperity.
Figure 4: Canadian greenhouse gas emissions and indexed trend emission intensity, excluding land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF).
Long descriptionFigure 4 is a line graph displaying actual GHG emissions for 1990 to 2022 (Mt CO2 eq) on one line and indexed trends of GHG emissions per GDP (emissions intensity) on another (Index 1990 = 100). The figure shows that GHG emissions were increasing slowly over time until 2008, decreased in 2009, then stabilized until 2019, and dropped below 2009 level in 2020. Since 2020, emissions have been increasing slightly again. In contrast, the emissions intensity was decreasing constantly during the whole time period from 100 in 1990 to 58 in 2022. On the figure, there is also a table showing the GHG emissions intensity for the years 1990, 2005, and 2017 to 2022, and the changes in percentage since 1990 and 2005. The following table displays GHG emissions and indexed GHG emissions per GDP from 1990 to 2022, and the second table is the one appearing on the graph.
Greenhouse gas emissions and indexed trend in emission intensity (excluding LULUCF)Year
GHG emissions (Mt)
Indexed GHG per GDP (emission intensity)
1990
608
100
1991
603
101
1992
622
103
1993
627
102
1994
649
101
1995
668
101
1996
689
102
1997
706
100
1998
712
97
1999
723
94
2000
748
92
2001
739
89
2002
745
88
2003
763
88
2004
767
86
2005
761
83
2006
757
80
2007
777
81
GHG emissions intensity and changes since 1990 and 2005 (excluding land use, land-use change and forestry)Year
1990
2005
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
GHG emissions intensity (Mt/$B GDP)
0.56
0.46
0.37
0.36
0.35
0.34
0.33
0.32
Change since 2005
NA
NA
-20%
-22%
-23%
-26%
-29%
-30%
Change since 1990
NA
-17%
-34%
-35%
-36%
-39%
-41%
-42%
Although 2022 was a record year of population growth for Canada with over one million new inhabitants, emissions per capita (purple line) have decreased from 24 tonnes in 2005 to 18 tonnes, which is comparable to the United States. Canada's population continues to grow, which requires ongoing action to keep our emissions curve bending downward. The latest National Inventory Report shows greenhouse gas emissions have decreased from 761 megatonnes to 708 megatonnes between 2005 and 2022 (pink dots), and Canada's population (green bars) has increased steadily from 32.4 million in 2005 to 39.3 million 2022Footnote 1.
Figure 5: Greenhouse gas per capita, population, and greenhouse gas emissions trends in Canada.
Long descriptionYear
Population
(in millions of people)
Total emissions in Canada
Canada GHG per capita
2005
32.2
761
23.6
2006
32.6
-
23.3
2007
32.9
-
23.6
2008
33.2
-
22.8
2009
33.6
-
21.2
2010
34.0
-
21.4
2011
34.3
-
21.5
2012
34.7
-
21.4
2013
35.1
-
21.4
2014
35.4
-
21.1
2015
35.7
-
20.9
2016
36.1
-
20.3
2017
36.5
-
20.3
2018
37.1
-
20.3
2019
37.6
-
19.9
2020
38.0
-
18.0
2021
38.2
-
18.2
2022
38.9
708
18.2
Since 2005, greenhouse gas emissions have increased in the oil and gas sector (21 megatonnes); the agriculture sector (4.6 megatonnes); and the building sector (3.9 megatonnes). These increases are being offset by decreases in other sectors, notably electricity (-69 megatonnes); heavy industry (-10 megatonnes); and waste and others (-4.3 megatonnes). Since 2005, transport emissions have generally increased, with a significant drop in 2020. In 2022, levels are slightly higher than in 2005.
Figure 6: Change in Canada's economic sector greenhouse gas emissions since 2005.
Long descriptionChange in Canada's economic sector GHG emissions since 2005
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Oil and gas
7
11
8
3
8
15
24
28
34
34
19
25
33
31
14
20
21
Electricity
-5
2
-8
-23
-22
-31
-34
-37
-42
-42
-42
-44
-54
-55
-63
-65
-69
Transport
1
6
6
5
9
8
8
10
8
6
6
9
13
14
-13
-6
Heavy industry
-2
-3
-17
-13
-7
-7
-8
-6
-9
-11
-11
-8
-9
-14
-10
-10
Buildings
-5
1
1
-1
-3
1
1
1
1
3
7
9
4
4
Agriculture
-1
-1
-2
-5
-5
-4
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
5
4
5
Waste and others
-1
-2
-3
-8
-6
-5
-5
-4
-6
-5
-4
-4
-3
-3
-7
-6
-4
In 2022, the largest contributor to oil and gas emissions was the oil sands category (87 megatonnes, or 40 percent), followed by natural gas production and processing (60 megatonnes); conventional oil production (39 megatonnes); and petroleum refining (17 megatonnes). The primary driver of emissions within the oil and gas sector is production growth. From 1990 to 2022, the production of total crude oil increased by 193 percent. The increase was driven almost entirely by Canada's oil sands operations. Canada's oil sands operations increased by over 800 percent since 1990, accounting for 80 percent of total crude oil production growth.
Figure 7: Change in Canada's oil and gas sector greenhouse gas emissions since 2005.
Long descriptionChange in Canada's oil and gas sector GHG since 2005
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Natural gas production and processing
2
3
2
-3
-3
-2
-3
-4
-5
-11
-12
-11
-13
-15
-14
-15
Conventional oil production
1
-5
-3
4
6
8
6
2
3
1
-9
-9
-9
Oil sands (mining, in-situ, upgrading)
6
9
10
15
20
21
28
31
35
37
34
42
47
48
46
50
51
Oil, natural gas and CO2 transmission
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-5
-5
-3
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
-2
-1
Petroleum refining
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-4
-4
-3
-5
-5
5
Continuing to reduce emissions
The Government of Canada's progress on climate change and lowering emissions continues to ramp up. Some of the national greenhouse gas regulations, investments, and policies will not reach maximum stringency until the later part of this decade. This approach supports Canada's competitiveness by allowing industry and other businesses sufficient time to make investments and take advantage of support programs that will help maintain their competitiveness and continue to provide good-paying jobs for their workers as they transition to cleaner operations.
This work is ongoing: in the 12 months since the last National Inventory Report, the Government of Canada has published the draft Clean Electricity Regulations, strengthened draft Oil and Gas Methane Regulations, and a regulatory framework outlining its approach to Cap Emissions from Oil and Gas. Canada reached a milestone by publishing the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard—the first regulations to be finalized from the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan.
The work continued in Budget 2024, released on April 16. The Budget includes $903 million toward a Canada Green Buildings Strategy to help drive emissions reductions and energy affordability in Canada's third-largest emitting sector. In launching a new $800 million Canada Greener Homes Affordability program, the government aims to reduce emissions and lower energy bills for renters and homeowners by increasing support for energy-efficient home retrofits. Budget 2024 also invests more than $700 million in clean fuel projects.
Currently, the Government of Canada is in the process of setting Canada's 2035 emissions reduction target. The target will be informed by engagements with provinces, territories, Indigenous peoples, the Net-Zero Advisory Body, and Canadians. More details will be announced by the end of the year.
Notable improvements to calculating Canada's emissions
The 2024 National Inventory Report includes significant improvements to calculating emissions from the upstream oil and gas and managed forest land sectors, along with updated global warming potential values, resulting in better accuracy of Canada's contribution to global warming.
- Oil and gas emissions: Researchers from Ottawa's Carleton University contributed to an enhanced atmospheric measurements quantification methodology for the upstream oil and gas industry. Atmospheric measurements from five key methane sources were integrated into the estimates, resulting in upward revisions ranging from 12 to 20 megatonnes each year between 1990 and 2022. This put Canada at the forefront of including atmospheric measurements in its national inventory.
- Managed forest land sector: New and updated data on historical harvest areas in Canada's forests between 1890 and 1989 were included in the 2024 National Inventory Report. As a result, there were significant revisions to anthropogenic forest carbon sinks and reported carbon removals from managed forests. This impacted both the level of, and the trend in, emissions and removals from the land sector, since the net balance for the forest sector is now a net source of emissions in all years of the time-series. In 2022, emissions from the land-use, land-use change, and forestry sector were a net source of 51 megatonnes.
- Updated global warming potential values: The 2024 inventory includes implementing updated global warming potential values for six of the seven greenhouse gases that all 194 countries that signed the Paris Agreement are required to track and report on (with the exception of carbon dioxide, being the reference unit).
- Conclusion: All the 2024 inventory improvements, including the updated global warming potential values, resulted in upward revisions of +29 megatonnes in 2005 and +28 megatonnes in 2021. The 2021 to 2022 change is +9.3 megatonnes, with the improved greenhouse gas emissions accounting and an expected increase during Canada's economic recovery following the global pandemic. This is less than the +13 megatonnes that was forecasted by experts in the 2023 Emissions Projection Report.