How will lower turnout in first phase of polls impact BJP, Congress in Rajasthan?

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For the BJP, the results will indicate if voters approve of CM Bhajan Lal Sharma and the new faces fielded at the cost of charismatic veterans

UPDATED: Apr 25, 2024 21:08 IST

On April 19, when Rajasthan voted for 12 seats in the first phase of the Lok Sabha elections, the lower turnout left parties and their candidates somewhat surprised. A similar trend was witnessed in other states, prompting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to appeal to people to step out in big numbers to cast their franchise.

Rajasthan polled 58.28 per cent votes in the first phase as against 63.71 per cent being the overall turnout in the state in 2019. The BJP attributed the lower turnout to Congress supporters staying home knowing that their party was set to lose. The Congress countered that low voting meant people were no longer keen to vote for BJP candidates.

Rhetoric aside, one thing appears certain: that the margin of victory in 2024 will shrink. In 2019, it had averaged at 340,000 votes across the state's 25 seats, all won by the BJP. It also means that in the six-odd seats where a tough BJP-Congress contest is anticipated, the fight may get closer.

There could be multiple reasons for the lower turnout this time. The BJP is fighting these elections in the name of Modi, just like the assembly polls last year, but at stake is the acceptance of chief minister Bhajan Lal Sharma, a first-time MLA who is yet to establish himself as a mass leader. Beyond Modi, Sharma has been the party's lead campaigner in Rajasthan since all other contesting leaders, howsoever prominent, are tied to their respective constituencies.

Union home minister Amit Shah has been boosting the campaign now and then, but Sharma is yet to exhibit the crowd-pulling charisma possessed by other leaders like Vasundhara Raje, a former chief minister of Rajasthan.

Sharma had done a roadshow in his assembly constituency of Sanganer in the run-up to the voting on April 19. That didn't seem to enthuse the voters. The assembly segment recorded 7.56 percentage points less polling than in 2019 in the same seat. Of the 117 booths in Jaipur constituency where polling in the first phase was under 50 per cent, 44 are in Sanganer.

Behind Raje deciding not to campaign perhaps lies her sidelining during the formation of the new BJP government in the state. Many veterans and popular leaders, including sitting MPs who had won by massive margins in 2019, were denied tickets or sidelined as the BJP pursued its experiments with a generational shift in leadership and bringing to the forefront as candidates dedicated workers and loyalists even if they are not vote-catchers.

The BJP, at the same time, gave Lok Sabha tickets to some prominent leaders who had lost the assembly polls in 2023. Also, in fielding Union ministers Bhupender Yadav, Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, Arjun Meghwal and Kailash Choudhary and Lok Sabha speaker Om Birla, the party is seen to face challenges to their re-election.

So, in the end, if a poor turnout harms the BJP more, it would mean that voters, including BJP workers and supporters, did not second the party's move to sideline charismatic leaders and vote-getters. The results will also be a test of whether BJP supporters have backed the poaching of Congress leaders, some of whom face accusations of irregularities.

A good turnout, close to 2019, was witnessed in Churu, where a close contest is expected between the BJP and Congress, and also in several assembly segments that have a sizeable number of Muslim voters. For example, Kishanpole assembly segment under Jaipur parliamentary seat polled only 0.25 percentage of votes less than in 2019. Then there's Nagar assembly segment (0.93 percentage points less than in 2019), Nagaur Lok Sabha seat (1.39 percentage points less) and Hawa Mahal assembly segment (1.55 percentage points less). In Ramgarh, Kishangarh Bas and Tijara in Alwar and Adarsh Nagar in Jaipur, polling booths in the Muslim-majority areas recorded over 70 per cent polling.

Observers say the low turnout should in no way make the Congress hopeful of victory. Low turnouts are traditionally interpreted as victory for the incumbents whereas heavy voting may indicate voters' dissatisfaction with sitting lawmakers and a determination to bring about change. Of the 96 assembly seats falling under the 12 Lok Sabha constituencies of the first phase, 94 recorded lower voting than in 2019. Of these MLAs, 44 belong to the BJP and 45 to the Congress.

The Congress this time has a problem of lack of good campaigners. None of its central leaders, including Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi, have been listed for campaigning for the second and final phase of elections. Rajasthan Congress unit chief Govind Singh Dotasra is among the lead campaigners, along with former chief minister Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot.

Analysts believe a low turnout will impact both the Congress and BJP in Rajasthan. For the BJP, the results will either set the tone for a smoother term for chief minister Sharma or force the party to reconsider the strategy of relying on fresh faces who lack individual strength. For the Congress, a third consecutive Lok Sabha election defeat in Rajasthan may only increase discontent and calls for heads to roll.

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Published By:

Shyam Balasubramanian

Published On:

Apr 25, 2024

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