Interest rate cuts loom. They won't shift the economy or politics

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Saturday May 18 2024

It is, as Sherlock Holmes might have said, a three-pipe problem, and it is preoccupying the Bank of England: when and by how much can it cut interest rates, while guarding against a return of the high inflation rate that has been its main problem over the past two to three years?

There is a lot of interest, certainly in financial markets, about what the Bank will say this Thursday when it announces its latest decision, alongside a new monetary policy report and forecast.

It will be a big shock if, after deliberating, it decides that now is the moment for a cut. I think rates were raised a bit too much but I would not bring them down this week, and the majority